Admin's Prediction - Ronald Wright vs Jermain Taylor

Will Jermain Taylor be able to break the "Fort Knox" like defense of Ronald "Winky" Wright? That is what this fight hinges on for Taylor. If either of these two has an advantage coming into this fight, I would guess that it is Winky who is going to control the flow of this fight. He will fight the fight he always does and force Taylor to attempt to break his defense.

Let's just remember that defense doesn't win a fight.

In Wright's defense, he also possesses a great offense and basically utilizes his defense to wear down his opponent, frustrate him, and ultimately force him to open himself up for a savage counter punching fiasco.

Does it make for interesting boxing? Not so much unless you understand what is going on.

Does he care? No. Wright will fight his fight and that is that. His style, described as awkward has been successful for him. Not glamourous, but definitely efficient. He defeated Mosley and Trinidad with it and now is looking to seize the middleweight belt in the same fashion.

Taylor is a big, fast, athletic boxer. He twice defeated Bernard Hopkins recently and let's remember who just stole the lightweight belt from Antonio Tarver. If Taylor didn't get credit for his close wins over Hopkins then, he certainly demands it now. Taylor is not stupid and knows how Wright fights. He is on the record as saying "if he wants to play defense, we'll play defense and no one will throw a punch." Going to make for a boring fight, but if he doesn't let himself get lured into that spot that Wright wants him in, he could do very well.

Physically, both are in great shape, but Taylor possesses significant size and age advantages over Wright. Once again, I'm not advocating age is a deciding factor as Hopkins showed us recently, but a fighter's size, athletic ability, and even age contribute greatly. Taylor has Wright beat in all of these. Taylor is 6' 1", Wright is 5' 10". Taylor has a 78" reach, Wright a 72" (which is quite long for a 5'10" boxer). This means Wright has to such Taylor in close or get in close himself and if Taylor is smart enough not to play that fight, then Wright is not going to score any points. He may not get pummelled, but unless he scores, how does he win?

There is close to a 7 year difference in age between these two. It has been suggested in the last two of Wright's fights that he may have reached his peak and is starting the slide back down. He seemed a little slow in his last outing against Solimon. This may be a factor in later rounds of the fight.

Taylor has significant power and will do some damage on Wright when he connects. He really has to watch out for Wright's jab which has got to be one of the best counter punches in boxing. Look at Wright vs Trinidad to see what kind of damage he can do with it. In that fight he outscored Trinidad something like 268-58 landing 31% of his jabs. Talk about frustrating for his opponent.

So who is going to win this fight?

I've fought taller boxers and it is not fun trying to get inside. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Wright hasn't fought someone with this much reach and height advantage (that is more of a guess as I can't think of anyone right now...) Wright moved up in weight to take this fight and I have heard nothing of his training. Taylor actually changed trainers, using Manny Steward and the legendary Kronk gym to help him take apart Winky's defense. For those of you who don't know, Steward is a legendary trainer and would not have accepted the offer to train Taylor if he didn't think there was something there that would allow him to win.

So, I'm going with Taylor based solely on the fact that I think his offense will be busier than Wright's and I think he has the speed necessary to nullify Wright's counter punches. If Taylor attempts to muscle Wright, he is going to lose, but I believe Steward has given him a gameplan that he can use to break into "Fort Knox" and steal the gold. Wright is going to fight a predictable fight, doing what he does best, so there is no reason Taylor and Steward cannot study that, break it down, and come up with a plan.

If Wright decides to fight out of character, Taylor will have an easier job. This all hinges on how smart Taylor is going to be in not letting Wright suck him into fighting his fight. He needs to stay calm, fire off that blistering jab to keep Wright out and keep working him until something lands.

It's going to be a long, somewhat arduous fight -- some may even call it boring-- but in the end it will be Jermain Taylor with hand raised due to a decision by the judges after 12 rounds of boxing.

More on the fight at HBO.  Takes place tonight - 17 Jun 06 on HBO PPV, 2100hrs

Think I'm right? Then you know what to do -- Bet on it!

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