Admin's Prediction: Antonio Tarver vs Bernard Hopkins

With the 37 year old Antonio Tarver taking on 41 year old Bernard Hopkins tomorrow night, it's about time I made my prediction. With any luck this fight will actually occur unlike the previous one (Castillo vs Corrales). Although, guess what? There is a weight issue in this fight as well.

Tarver recently finished filming for Sylester Stallone's Rocky 6 in which Tarver plays Mason "Line" Dixon a heavyweight boxer that required him to balloon up to about 218lbs. Filming for the movie finished sometime in May and I am not clear on how long before that Tarver finished his roles, but assuming he was still filming into May, that gave him about a month to lose 35 plus pounds. That's going to hurt.

Hopkins faces a weight issue as well. The "Executioner" has always fought at the middleweight level (160 lbs) except for one light heavyweight fight early on his career (which he lost in a 4 round decision). He had to gain 10-12lbs of muscle for this fight which is going to be Hopkin's last fight of his career.

Funny how two Golden Boy Promotions owners/part owners have staged comebacks or high profile fights in the last few months -- makes me wonder about the level of publicity Golden Boy Promotions is trying to achieve but that is another story. For those of you who don't know, Oscar De La Hoya founded Golden Boy Promotions and recently ended his retirement with a defeat over Ricardo Mayorga. Bernard Hopkins knocked out Oscar with a devastating body shot in the 9th round in their last meeting and De La Hoya subsequently signed him up to manage the east coast affairs of Golden Boy Promotions.

Anyways, let's go through this. Both fighters are getting old. Hopkins loses the battle here in that he has surpassed 41 but it may not be much of a factor considering his lifestyle. Hopkins is super clean and completely dedicated to his training. In preparation for this fight he went out and hired the top names in fitness and training to help him put on 10-12lbs of muscle. We'll find out tonight if he succeeded. We'll also find out if Tarver was able to shed his 35 plus pounds. The press conference between the two doesn't reveal much difference in size although Tarver does look slightly less defined than Hopkins which makes sense.

From a physical perspective, Tarver is bigger and has a significant reach advantage. He is also naturally a light heavyweight and is used to the punishment delivered in that weight class. Hopkins is moving up and it remains to be seen if he will be as effective with the added bulk. His effectiveness at middleweight is undisputed. This is a boxer who knows what he wants and then gets it.

Inside the ring, past fights can tell us a few things about the way both boxers work. Hopkins is notorious for starting out slow. In a plethora of fights, he has sat back and waited until the later rounds to turn on the jets. In some fights this has cost him the decision. Things he does well are delivering devastating body shots (such as round 9 De La Hoya), and is able to get inside and stay there. Tarver tends to keep his arms up high which is going to open up nice targets for Hopkins in terms of the body. As well, Tarver is a southpaw and Hopkins is an excellent counter puncher. Tarver drops his right after throwing his jab and that is going to open him up to allow Hopkins inside which is where he likes to be.

Hopkins, unlike most boxers, does not come inside following a jab. He moves in after throwing a left hook or even a right. This confuses boxers and is going to be especially problematic for Tarver because of his tendency to drop his right after the jab. It gives Hopkins that opening he needs to throw his left hook and come in on Tarver.

Both men have knockout power and the will to win this fight. Hopkins is fighting for his last time. He will not want to leave boxing with a loss. He lost before and both times, it has eaten him up to the point where he trains himself to death to prevent it from ever happening again. If Hopkins loses this fight, I would not be surprised to see him back in the ring to avenge the loss.

Tarver does not take losing lightly either and has faced every opponent he has lost to in order to destroy them. Ray Jones Jr is a case in point. After losing a controversial decision, Tarver dismantled Jones, knocking him out for the first time in his career. Personally, I do not believe either of these fighters can take a loss in this fight and live with themselves afterwards. It will be especially bad if Tarver loses as it will be near impossible for him to force Hopkins back into the ring for rematch - something he has done with past opponents he has lost to in order to prove to himself and the world who the better fighter actually is.

We also can't forget that Tarver just filmed Rocky 6 -- perhaps he picked up some pointers from Rocky himself.

A lot of writers are predicting a boring fight tomorrow night in which Tarver is going to come out strong but ultimately lose to Hopkins. The consensus seems to be that Hopkins has enough tricks in his bag and the sheer determination to finish off his career on top that he can't possibly lose. That coupled with Tarver's extreme weight loss to prepare for this fight and his questionable stamina in later rounds seem to make Hopkins the sure bet. On the other hand, the experts in Vegas are putting their money on Tarver. Hmmmm?

I'm not so sure. I get the impression that Tarver has been underestimated his entire life and has time and time again proven he has the ability to beat top fighters and learn from past mistakes. Otherwise, how is he holding the light heavyweight title? Honestly, it does not thrill me that his weight is bouncing around like a yo-yo and it has definitely got to be taking a toll on his body and mind, but I guarantee going from 218 lbs to 175 is going to make him feel like a new man - if it was done properly (although if the time was truly a month, I think he may be in a bit of a pickle). I'm thinking he feels a little invincible right about now.

What is clear is that this is not a clear cut pick. Hopkins has lost his last two fights? Is that a signal that he is done and washed up? The fights were close, one even controversial so they aren't even a clear factor here. Although, losing twice does have a mental effect. This could be a last ditch effort to go out with a win in his mind.

So Who's Going to Win this Fight?

If there was any fight I would predict a draw in, it would be this one. Both fighters are going to give everything they have. However, picking a draw is a little non-commital for me. Instead, I'm leaning towards youth (as it is defined in this fight) and thinking Tarver may win. I want Hopkins to win simply because he is the better trained athlete and lives a boxer's lifestyle, is adding muscle to make weight and by all aspects should be able to win this fight. Tarver, I get the feeling, is riding high on his horse and doesn't think he can be knocked off of it. Over confidence is just as bad as not enough.

The problem is that Hopkins gave his best shots to Taylor in two fights and they were not good enough and Tarver has a weight advantage over Taylor. Why would Hopkins be able to damage Tarver any worse?

All Hopkins has to do to win this fight is come out busy in the early rounds and exploit the openings Tarver is going to present. If he can do that, he can win this. The smart bet is Tarver but I'm hoping (which does not make for a smart bet) that Hopkins is not going to hold back at all in this fight and will give 150% of himself to ensure he leaves the ring with a good memory. Please Hopkins - turn on the heat early.

Hopkins to win by decision after 12 rounds of boxing. Think I'm right? Bet on it.

Want more - check out the HBO site for this fight.

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